Results and products
Summary of the main outcomes
Summary of the final scientific report
Publications
2011
Massonnet, F., Fichefet, T., Goosse,
H., Vancoppenolle, M., Mathiot,
P., and König Beatty, C.: On the influence of model
physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, The Cryosphere,
5, 687–699, doi:10.5194/tc-5-687-2011, 2011.
Vannitsem, S.: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change,
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 911–924, doi:10.5194/npg-18-911-2011, 2011.
Vannitsem, S. and Hagedorn, R.: Ensemble forecast postprocessing over Belgium: Comparison of
deterministic-like and ensemble regression methods, Meteorol.
Appl., 18, 1, 94–104, doi:10.1002/met.217, 2011.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S. Post-processing through linear regression, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 147-160 doi:10.5194/npg-18-147-2011, 2011.
2012
Mathiot, P., König Beatty, C., Fichefet,
T., Goosse, H., Massonnet,
F., and Vancoppenolle, M.: Better constraints on the
sea-ice state using global sea-ice data assimilation, Geoscientific
Model Development, 5, 1501–1515, doi:10.5194/gmd-5-1501-2012, 2012.
Roulin, E. and Vannitsem, S.: Postprocessing
of Ensemble Precipitation Predictions with Extended Logistic Regression Based
on Hindcasts, Monthly Weather Review, 140,
874–888, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00062.1, 2012.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S. Toward
post-processing of ensemble forecasts based on hindcasts.
Publications scientifiques et
techniques Royal Meteorological Institute Belgium, 61, 2012.
2013
Close, S. E. and Goosse, H.:
Entrainment-driven modulation of Southern Ocean mixed layer properties and sea
ice variability in CMIP5 models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20226, 2013.
Dubinkina, S. and Goosse, H.: An assessment of particle
filtering methods and nudging for climate state reconstructions, Climate of the
Past, 9, 1141–1152, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013.
Goosse, H., Roche, D. M., Mairesse, A., and Berger,
M.: Modelling past sea ice changes, Quaternary
Science Reviews, 79, 191–206, doi:
10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.03.011, 2013.
Massonnet, F., Mathiot, P., Fichefet,
T., Goosse, H., König
Beatty, C., Vancoppenolle, M., and Lavergne, T.: A model reconstruction of the Antarctic sea
ice thickness and volume changes over 1980–2008 using data assimilation,
Ocean Modelling, 64, 67–75, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.01.003, 2013.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S.: Reliable Probabilities Through Statistical
Post-processing of Ensemble Forecasts, in: Proceedings of the European
Conference on Complex Systems 2012, edited by Gilbert, T., Kirkilionis,
M., Nicolis, G., and Vannitsem,
S., vol. III, pp. 347–352, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-00395-5_45, 2013.
Zunz, V., Goosse, H., and Massonnet,
F.: How does inter-annual variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to
reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?,
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, doi:10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013.
2014
Barth, A., Beckers, J.- M., Troupin, C., Alvera-Azcárate, A., and Vandenbulcke,
L.: divand-1.0: n-dimensional variational data
analysis for ocean observations, Geoscientific Model
Development, 7, 225–241, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-225-2014, 2014.
Goosse, H. and Zunz, V.: Decadal trends in the
Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback, The
Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, doi:10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014.
Massonnet, F., Goosse, H., Fichefet,
T. and Counillon, F.: Calibration of sea ice dynamic
parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman
filter, J. Geophys. Res. Ocean.,
119(7), 4168–4184, 2014.
Vannitsem, S.: Dynamics and predictability of a low-order wind-driven
ocean– atmosphere coupled model, Climate Dynamics, 42, 1981–1998, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1815-8, 2014.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S., 2014.
A probabilistic approach to forecast the uncertainty with ensemble
spread, Monthly Weather Review (in revision), 2014.
2015
Barth, A., Canter, M., Van Schaeybroeck,
B., Vannitsem, S., Massonnet,
F., Zunz, V., Mathiot, P., Alvera-Azcárate, A., and Beckers,
J.-M.: Assimilation of sea surface temperature, sea
ice concentration and sea ice drift in a model of the Southern Ocean, Ocean Modelling (in revision), 2015.
Roulin E., and Vannitsem S., Post-processing of
medium-range probabilistic hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing, initial
conditions and model errors, Hydrol. Process., 29, 1434–1449, doi:10.1002/hyp.10259, 2015.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S. Ensemble post‐processing using member‐by‐member approaches: theoretical aspects, Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society, 141: 807–818, doi:10.1002/qj.2397, 2015a.
Van Schaeybroeck, B. and Vannitsem, S. Assessment of calibration assumptions under
strong climate changes, Geophysical Research Letters (in revision), 2015b.
Van Schaeybroeck, B., Mailier, P. and Vannitsem, S.
Ensemble post-processing in Belgium based on reforecasts, Weather and
Forecasting (in preparation), 2015.
Zunz, V., Goosse, H., and Dubinkina,
S.: Impact of the ini- tialisation
on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual
to multi-decadal timescales, Climate Dynamics, 44, 2267-2286, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2344-9, 2015.
Zunz, V. and Goosse, H.: Influence of freshwater
input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, The Cryosphere, 9, 541-556, doi:10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015.