Influence of initialisation methods on the quality of decadal climate predictions

Decadal climate predictions bridge the gap between seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term projection. They are a mixed problem between two kinds of predictions in which we have to analyse at the same time changes due to natural climate variability and those resulting from external forcing. Many uncertainties remain on the most appropriate methods to perform decadal climate predictions. In that context, we are studying how the choice of the methodology affects the quality of the predictions.

We are focusing on the Southern Ocean (see Polar climate predictability), particularly on the ability of climate models to simulate the evolution of the sea ice in that area. To that purpose, on the one hand, we are analysing outputs from models involved in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). On the other hand, we are performing simulations with the coupled model LOVECLIM, a climate model of intermediate complexity with a relatively low computational cost. This allows us to perform numerous experiments within a reasonable time. This way, we can systematically test different methods that could lead to better predictions of the Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales.

Peer-reviewed publication

• Zunz, V. and H. Goosse (2015), Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, The Cryospher, Vol. 9, pp. 541–556, 3563–3602, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-541-2015.
• Zunz V., H. Goosse and S. Dubinkina (2015), Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales, Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, pp. 2267-2286, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2344-9.
• Goose H. and V. Zunz (2014), Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback, The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, pp. 453-470, doi:10.5194/tc-8-453-2014.
• Zunz V., H. Goosse and F. Massonnet (2013), How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?, The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, pp. 451-468, doi:10.5194/tc-7-451-2013.
  

Attendance to conferences, courses and research stay

• April 2014: EGU General Assembly

Vienna, Austria. Posters presentation 1 and 2.

• May 2013: International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction

Toulouse, France. Poster presentation.

• April 2013: EGU General Assembly

Vienna, Austria. Posters 1 (Outstanding student poster award) and 2.

• December 2012: UNITER, 2^ème journée scientifique

Brussels, Belgium. Poster presentation.

• October 2012: BeNeLux APECS Symposium

Gent, Belgium. Poster presentation.

• September 2012: 3rd International Conference on Earth System Modelling

Hamburg, Germany. Poster presentation.

• April 2012: 10th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Nouméa, Nouvelle-Calédonie. Oral presentation.

• December 2011: UNITER, 1^ère journée scientifique

Brussels, Belgium. Poster presentation.

• October 2011: WCRP Open Science Conference

Denver, USA. WCRP Outstanding Poster presentation.

• April 2011: EGU General Assembly

Vienna, Austria. Poster presentation.

• March 2011: Research stay at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology

Hamburg, Germany. Oral presentation.

• February - May 2011: Predictability courses at Universiteit Gent

Gent, Belgium.

• January 2011: Data assimilation courses at Université Joseph Fourier

Grenoble, France.

• November 2010: Meteoclim PhD Symposium

Brussels, Belgium. Poster presentation.