The group Theoretical Climate and Palaeoclimates Dynamics managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, itself included in the Earth and Life Institute of the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Over the past five years the team has been funded by an ERC Starting Grant that is now over, and it is now funded by the National Fund of Scientific Research as well as the Belgian Science Policy Office.

Recent presentations...

  • 30 October 2015: Vers une nouvelle histoire des glaciations, given at Conference de l'UTAN at Andenne (Belgium)
  • 23 October 2015: Le climat, given at Formation continuée en Développement durable at Namur [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1584660
  • 22 October 2015: Open access journals in geosciences, given at Open Access Week 2015 -- ``Open for Collaboration'' - Research impact through Open Access at Royal Library in Brussels (Belgium) [link]

Recent articles...

  • J. Carson, M. Crucifix, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson (2015) , Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle, ArXiv e-prints (also available at arxiv:1511.03467)
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix (2015) , A statistical modelling study of the abrupt millennial-scale climate changes focusing on the influence of external forcings, submitted (also available at arxiv:1510.06290)
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix, K. Aihara (2015) , Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial--interglacial cycles, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 306 25 - 33 doi:10.1016/j.physd.2015.05.007 (also available at arxiv:1506.04628)