Welcome

The group Theoretical Climate and Palaeoclimates Dynamics managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, itself included in the Earth and Life Institute of the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Over the past five years the team has been funded by an ERC Starting Grant that is now over, and it is now funded by the National Fund of Scientific Research as well as the Belgian Science Policy Office.

Recent presentations...

  • 16 April 2015: Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales, given at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015 at Vienna (co-authored with T. Mitsui, G. Lenoir) [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1394916
  • 25 March 2015: (Palaeo-)climate sensitivity: ideas and definitions from the NPG literature, given at Ringberg Grand Challenge Workshop: Earth's Climate Sensitivities at Ringberg (Munich) [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1357896
  • 19 February 2015: Ocean - atmosphere : what can one predict, how, and on what time scales ?, given at Invited contribution to lecture on "The Earth System and Climate Change" by Dr Luke Skinner and Prof Eric Wolff, University of Cambridge at Cambridge

Recent articles...

  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix, K. Aihara (2015) , Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial--interglacial cycles, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 306 25 - 33 doi:10.1016/j.physd.2015.05.007 (arxiv available at arxiv:1506.04628)
  • N. Bounceur, M. Crucifix, R. D. Wilkinson (2015) , Global sensitivity analysis of the climate-vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach, Earth System Dynamics 6 205--224 doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015
  • F. Regoli , T. de Garidel-Thoron , K. Tachikawa , Z. Jian , L. Ye , A. 3. e. W. Droxler , G. Lenoir, M. Crucifix, N. Barbarin , L. Beaufort (2015) , Progressive shoaling of the equatorial Pacific thermocline over the last eight glacial periods, Paleoceanography 2014PA002696 doi:10.1002/2014PA002696