The group Theoretical Climate and Palaeoclimates Dynamics managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, itself included in the Earth and Life Institute of the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Over the past five years the team has been funded by an ERC Starting Grant that is now over, and it is now funded by the National Fund of Scientific Research as well as the Belgian Science Policy Office.

Recent presentations...

  • 11 November 2015: Climate sensitivity, given at NESSC Workshop: Mathematical approaches to (paleo-)climate sensitivity at Soesterberg (The Netherlands) [link]
  • 30 October 2015: Vers une nouvelle histoire des glaciations, given at Conference de l'UTAN at Andenne (Belgium)
  • 23 October 2015: Le climat, given at Formation continuée en Développement durable at Namur [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1584660

Recent articles...

  • M. Crucifix (2016) , Climate science: Earth's narrow escape from a big freeze, Nature 529 162--163 doi:10.1038/529162a
  • E. Wolff, A. Berger, M. Crucifix, D. A. Hodell , C. Mangili , J. F. McManus , B. Otto-Bliesner, K. Pol , D. Raynaud , L. C. Skinner , P. C. Tzedakis , Q. Z. Yin, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Barbante , V. Brovkin, I. Cacho , E. Capron , P. Ferretti , A. Ganopolski, J. O. Grimalt , B. H"onisch , K. Kawamura , A. Landais , V. Margari , B. Martrat , V. Masson-Delmotte, Z. Mokeddem , F. Parrenin , A. A. Prokopenko , H. Rashid , M. Schulz, N. Vazquez Riveiros (2015) , Interglacials of the last 800,000 years, Reviews of Geophysics n/a--n/a doi:10.1002/2015rg000482
  • J. Carson, M. Crucifix, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson (2015) , Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle, ArXiv e-prints (also available at arxiv:1511.03467)