The research group managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research of the Earth and Life Institute at the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

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Recent presentations

  • 15 June 2016: Model discrepancy and climate modelling, given at International Society for Bayesian Analysis World Meeting 2016 at Forte Village Resort, Pula, Sardina (Italy) weblink
  • 18 April 2016: Ice ages tipping points : a historical perspective, given at Climate Tipping Points Workshop 2016 at Dartington Hall (UK) (co-authored with T. Mitsui) weblink
  • 17 February 2016: Ocean - atmosphere : what can one predict, how, and on what time scales ?, given at Invited contribution to lecture on "The Earth System and Climate Change" by Dr Luke Skinner and Prof Eric Wolff, University of Cambridge at Cambridge

Recent articles

  • A. S. von der Heydt, H. A. Dijkstra, R. S. W. van de Wal, R. Caballero , M. Crucifix, G. L. Foster, M. Huber, P. Köhler, E. Rohling , P. J. Valdes, et al. (2016) , Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes, Current Climate Change Reports doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3 weblink
  • M. Mitsui , M. Crucifix (2016) , Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study, Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z arxiv weblink
  • S. Lovejoy , M. Crucifix, A. De Vernal (2016) , Characterizing Climate Fluctuations over Wide-Scale Ranges, Eos 97 doi:10.1029/2016eo055791 weblink